All-Star Break Part IV: The Tampa Bay Rays

And finally, the last team we’ll look at are  those worst to first defending AL Champions: The Tampa Bay Rays.

TB	1st Half	2nd Half	∆RAR
Batting	53.2	71.1	-17.91
SP	70.5	83.2	-12.67
RP	15.1	12.2	2.90
Total	138.9	166.6	-27.69

Wow, that’s a large run difference in the 2^nd half. It appears the Rays have a lot of 2^nd half performers, with hitting and starting pitching expected to improve and relievers holding steady. Overall, the 2^nd half team should play a lot better than the 1^st half team and at 2.7 wins, it will make the competitive AL East race even tighter.

Batting	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB%	K%	wOBA
1st Half	0.265	0.344	0.439	0.784	10.4%	19.6%	0.350
2nd Half	0.272	0.350	0.450	0.799	10.1%	18.4%	0.357
Diff	-0.007	-0.005	-0.010	-0.015	0.002	0.012	-0.007

You can see from the hitting table that the Rays hitters play a lot better in the 2^nd half. They’re batting average improves to go along with less strike outs. Walks also decreased but their BB/K shows some improvement. At 17 runs or 1.7 wins, the already dangerous Rays offense could get a 2^nd half boost.

Pitching	W-L%	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	IP/GS	FIP
1H-SP	0.545	4.23	1.34	7.44	3.05	1.07	6.04	4.19
2H-SP	0.505	3.97	1.32	8.02	3.00	1.01	5.97	3.96
Diff	0.041	0.27	0.02	-0.58	0.06	0.06	0.08	0.23

Rays starters have pitched poorly over the 1^st half of the season. However, looking at career splits, we see that their 2^nd half has historically been better. All the good signs are there, more strikeouts, fewer walks, and lower HR/9. A 12 run pitching improvement just might be what the Rays need to get back in the race.

Pitching	W-L%	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
1H-RP	0.552	3.91	1.32	7.27	3.41	0.85	3.94
2H-RP	0.445	4.21	1.42	6.99	3.61	0.86	4.05
Diff	0.107	-0.30	-0.10	0.28	-0.19	-0.01	-0.11

The Rays bullpen has been surprisingly effective the past two years. In the 2^nd half it appears that they’ll be about 2 runs worse. Given their workload already, it doesn’t bode too well. Fewer strikes and more walks will make for some tense late innings, but overall the relieving corps should hold steady.

With a 27.7 run improvement in the 2^nd half, The Tampa Bay Rays will put pressure on the rest of the AL East. The defending champs still have some life and their career splits give them some hope. Better batting, better starting pitching, and a steady bullpen sure sound like a winning formula to us. It’ll be interesting to see which of the top 3 teams in the AL doesn’t make the playoffs.